Periodically, in addition to the weekly open houses, I will include some thoughts on the real estate market, other real estate news, or some other items of interest. I call this the City Block Local, and I will start this week by providing some brief thoughts on the real estate market following the election.
Over the last couple of days there is no question I am asked more than, “what is going to happen to home values and the real estate market now?” Honestly, NO ONE KNOWS. And anyone who tells you differently is just speculating. Speculating on social media can be fun (or not!) but it is never prudent when it comes to buying or selling a home or investment property.
First, while all real estate is local, the economy is national (if not global). Greater Center City Philly’s real estate fundamentals are awesome. People want to live here and demand exceeds the limited supply. But whether the market improves or declines will depend more on the national economy.
Second, no one ever knows how the economy will do. Not Realtors, not investment bankers, not politicians, and not even economists. No one can time the market (if they did they would be exceedingly rich; e.g., the Big Short).
Third, there is currently an upswing in Philly real estate. Not sharp but smooth and gradual. That is great but there will always be another downturn at some point. And then the market will rise again. Economic markets are cyclical and real estate is no exception. No one predict when a downturn/upturn will occur, and typically economists cannot even see it when it actually begins when it happens (until they look back in hindsight, that is).
Fourth, no one knows what is going to happen under any new administration. And with a more unconventional President-elect, that would seem as true as ever. That being said, some of the common wisdom I have read is that Trump’s assumed economic policies may lead to higher inflation and higher interest rates. That is not necessarily good or bad for the housing market. With strong consumer confidence and a robust economy, the real estate market can flourish under those conditions. Or not. Plus, even this is speculation. No one knows.
So my overall advice is you cannot time the market. Buy and sell when it works for you and your family. That you do know and that you can control.
And please, I would love to hear your thoughts and comments on today’s CB Local. So please reply to my email, comment on the blog page, or contact me directly if you have any questions or other thoughts.
Also, I understand Philly neighborhoods, blocks, and homes at the micro level. No matter how the economy is, please contact me at any time to discuss the specifics of your real estate needs such as home value, what timing works for you, how to improve the value of your home for eventual resale, what might work for your next home, etc. And I value your referrals as well.